Baltimore's City Paper had a cover story on July 12, 2006 issue titled3 Feet Higher and Rising. I contended not only that it was sensational, but that I was misquoted and portrayed in the wrong context. I had contacted the writer, Ralph Brave for comment. In fairness, he showed up as a guest on our show Sunday July 16th, 2006. The podcast of the entire show is at this link.
I wanted to clear the air about the quote attributed to me. I maintain a temperate, conservative belief about Global Warming projections, but do not deny it exists. Being to the right of 'left' is not always right of center. The article said I called the information at the meeting 'propoganda'. In fact I was saying that about making any direct connection to Hurricane Isabel and Global Warming. My issue has always been to portray this subject and all honestly and fairly in the media and to my students. This article proves a bias, and unfairly uses me to make it's point. The article ignored any information I gave Mr. Brave to follow up, as well as any of my credentials as a scientist, college educator, or my own research on this topic. Below you will find the posts I made in my blog, as well as the questions I had prepared for our on air discussion. Not all made it on the air, but we hope to tackle more in the following week.
Ocean City Current
2095 Projection with 3 Ft Ocean Rise AND Category 2 Hurricane
Click on these images at the right for a movie of projected flooding. You will need Quicktime. The pictures were on the front page of the paper, but not properly identified. The article gives the impression of what Ocean City will look like in 2095. However, the images show what the effects would be with the high end of 3 feet sea level rise AND if a Category 2 storm made a direct hit. It should be noted that the projected range for sea level rise is 1.3Ft-3.5 Ft and no hurricane has made a direct hit on Ocean City in the past 100 years. So once again, speculation is perceived as expectation if you just look at face value. This is like false advertising. All of the media should be more responsible when displaying images and writing stories. Too often the worse case scenario is made. That can ironically push some people away and towards a more suspicious, contrarian view.
The Real Inconvenient Truth? This review from Junk Science disagrees with Al Gore's movie: Inconvenient Truth. See why some of this movie is described as sensational and which data you believe.
I suggested: Winds of Change, by Eugene Linden. this explains the displacement and disappearance of civilizations due to abrupt climate changes that occurred before the industrial revolution. As a result of natural causes.
Listen to Homer's view on Global Warming. Do you agree? I may pick on Tony with this quote, but I want to make it clear that we both agree that the planet is warming.
The main debates are:
1. How much? Some of the data we have is based on new technology. Old data sites are under scrutiny because their variables such as their surrounding that have changed.
2. How much of the present warming is part of the natural cycle? Based on paleoclimate ice core sampling of Methane and Carbon Dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere, the earth was about 5 degrees warming during the Cretaceous Period (time of the dinosaurs).
3. Does Solar Output have an impact on our atmospheric temperature? The 22 year solar storm cycle has just reached it's peak, coinciding with a 30 year Atlantic Ocean Warming period. Ironically, Mars has experienced warming as well. This article originally from Environment News (November 1, 2005) states NASA's measurements. And while the Cato Institute (often blamed for having an oil agenda) is mentioned, research by Duke University concludes 10%-30% of Global Warming in the past 2 decades is due to increased energy output from the sun.
4. Forecast Models- There is still error with medium range models going out 7 Days. That is why Tony and I have engaged in a weekly forecast challenge with our 7 Day Battle. How can we hold projections out 100 years with conviction? one of the fundamental processes I studied in school was that of feedbacks. There is evidence of negative feedbacks in the atmosphere. For example: Increasing temperature increases water vapor in the air. Eventually that water vapor will create more cloud cover and increase planetary albedo- or reflect more sunlight. The Thermohaline Circulation could also get disrupted and lead to an abrupt cooling. This negative feedback was exaggerated in the movie The Day After Tomorrow, but evidence shows that brief warming of the climate can eventually tip off an Ice Age. See the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) report in response to Hollywood.
5. Kyoto Protocol- International Treaty to cut Greenhouse Gasses. The US did not sign because China and India are exempt. They have no restrictions on their pollution and will pass the US in Greenhouse Gas production by 2025. In addition, the costs to comply would put many of our labor force out of work. It is an issue of balancing economics vs. environment.
Also, the past 20-30 years has produced the strongest El Ninos recorded (although we have only been measuring it for a few decades). that also releases heat into the atmosphere as a natural process. Cooling in the Western Hemisphere Pacific demonstrates that we have recently entered a La Nina Phase. The Atlantic is warming, while the Pacific (a larger source of heat energy) is now cooling.
Listen to Homer's view on Global Warming.
