One more image of the Baltimore County 'Thundersnow'. Bob from Carney sent this in to us. He said that 10 inches of snow fell in that 5 hour span. 4 1/2" in 1 hour.
Feb 12 2am
Feb 12 7am
This morning's visible satellite picture. Thanks to clear skies, the white showed the snowpack here in Maryland.
Metro Baltimore averaged 12"-21" of snow, with the highest amounts on the west and north side of the city.
Yesterday's storm final total pushed BWI-Marshall into the Top 10. We have also noted that 6 out of the 10 occurred between Feb 11 and Feb 19. there must be something to mid-February.
We will leave up the Winter Storm Page, for the rest of the season. Look for more additions by the next storm.
SUNDAY:
For snow totals and regional view see our Winter Storm Page. Our Baltimore County (central) totals are 16"-18" of snow. Yes there were drifts up to 3Ft.
Also, just added a link to for a good detailed look at this storm and perhaps the next we discussed on our show.
I had to steal this from him though: The visible Satellite showed an eye today. I do remember the Jan. 25th 2000 storm looking like that though.
Concession: We Definitely undercut the storm!
The coastal storm continues to intensify as it rolls up the coast. Since Tony and I aired on the lower end, some might call this a busted forecast... but in hindsight I would not change a thing. Our analysis was reiterated by Paul Kocin last night on TWC, when he dropped the DC totals. Overnight, the precip shield had not moved much. In fact there will be a wide range in totals over a short distance.
The Doppler image (on the left) was a snapshot from 3am, but it could have been anytime from 12pm to 4am. Western Baltimore City and NW Baltimore County through Howard County should have snow totals that break our upper limit and verify other forecasts..while the south/east side could end up with almost half the highest accumulations. As of early this morning: BWI=3.5"; Hunt Valley= 7.0"
This will be a major push to my seasonal snowcast of 30" and prove my theory of extremes. We have been due to payback the warm January.
so you can follow the weather around Maryland. Please note that there is information from many differ net sources, so the page may need some time to load.If the page loading gets stuck, hit your refresh button a few times.
As of 10AM, the models are still pushing lots of precip, but Tony has mentioned that initialized wrong. It is warmer this morning than what models are indicating. It looks like we can toss out any accumulating precipitation until this evening. Before then it will be hard to get anything to stick, or you may see rain mix in.
Considering that, I went on TV with a general 6"-8" swath for metro Baltimore. Westminster and north 4"-6"
Annapolis, DC and Eastern Shore: 8"-12"
The wrap around Sunday morning may boost Cecil or Harford counties close to 1 foot, but the back edge should be east of the big cities then.
This model was bashed by yours truly early in the week. It showed the storm first on Tuesday and then it disappeared. I bashed it, but now I buy it. for each time, the left map is the surface low, and the right is the potential precipitation in mm (darn metric system). Notice the bulk of moisture off-shore. the Sunday Morning map does show wrap around, but clipping the Eastern Shore. Baltimore would end up with light snow in the purple shade.
The NAM ( not shown for time constraints) had .55" of liquid precipitation. This morning it dropped back to .25"
That would translate to 2-3 inches of snow if it was pure snow
The extrapolated numbers have BWI starting the storm at 32.4F
Any mix at the start would lower amonts..., but the trend is to push the moisture east.
The GFS:
Saturday Night
Sunday Morning
At 12Z this morning, extrapolated precipitation for BWI was = .61"
This is the high end and translates to about 6 inches if it is all snow.
The NGM
Saturday Night
Sunday Morning
At 12Z this morning, the NGM had .49" of liquid which would translate to about 5" of snow. If that were the case.
It also has the surface temperatures staying in the mid 30s. The white line shows the 540 thickness (used for rain snow). So even if it was a pure snow from colder clouds, it would be heavy and wet (compressing) or melt on contact. Remember last Feb/March? It snowed all day, but didn't stick on warm ground. That is what the NGM is saying.
Also: On the right, Sunday morning's map shows a surface low pressure over the Delaware Beaches, but I highlighted the bulk of the precip again well offshore. There is wrap around snow through Sunday morning, but more wind (gusts over 30mph) and blowing snow.
As with any storm, there can be pockets of heavy moisture to jump the total, but with the information (and too much more to post online), We continue to stick with a general 3"-6", and watch for the mixing to cut down amounts near thee bay. Sunday morning's warp around may prove to push much higher amounts east of the area. The winners of this storm will be Philly and up towards New York. All of the hype will prove true, but this will be just a moderate storm for Baltimore.
THURSDAY:
Trying to forecast this storm based on the models is like trying to pass legislation in Congress. A true split, and the filibuster continues.
I know there are some forecasters online are going whole hog on this storm, but I am having trouble accepting that. As we have mentioned many a time- "THE TREND IS YOUR FRIEND". Right now, the trend is for the jet to carry southern moisture off of the Carolina Coast and pass it to our south. It has happened a few times since last week, and caused me to bust on an old snow cast.
Less snow:NOGAPS (left) and Canadian (right). The NOGAPS is for Sunday morning, but clearly shows the system jumping offshore east of the outer banks. I know I said I lost faith in the Canadian, but it was first to call this storm, and now on the 700mb moisture map supports the theory of the jet carrying this storm off of the coast.
More Snow: GFS and European The GFS shown here for Saturday night. It would provide accumulating snow, but quickly in and out by Sunday morning. This showed something similar last week that did not happen, so we will wait one more run before jumping on the bandwagon.
The European has been letting us down this winter as well. It has overdone many cold air outbreaks. Just last weekend it initially called for a coastal storm only to change it to the inland runner that proved true. Shown here, it looks the same, but is faster with this set up. Here is the depiction for Sunday morning with a coastal low off of NJ coast. This is the slowest solutions of all the models I checked. It would also provide the most snow (white)- with a coastal mix or rain.
Personally, I am leaning towards light snow for Saturday. A southern track would provide a better chance for accumulating snow in southern Maryland- much like mid December's event. Still too early to call amounts. Anyone who does so, is just guessing. There is not enough information to make that call yet, so hopefully the other forecasters will act responsibly.
WEDNESDAY:
The weather map today will show clouds and snow in the midwest. This disturbance does not have a lot of moisture with it, and will only produce flurries. The best chance fore us to see some flakes will be this evening, however it will reinforce the cold air and for a change keep our highs below normal in the 30s.
The highlighted pattern for the upcoming month in and of itself looks like status quo. While cold air prevails, it has also pushed the storm track too far south and off of the coast to affect us. We will need the jet to retrograde (back up west) just a little if we have any chance of coastals. Otherwise we will continue to be split between lake effect snow north west, and the storms to ur south and east.
Side Note: With the pattern change, the Santa Anna winds will continue to fuel the southern California fires. Downslope winds and heat up and dry out the air. A bad recipe for more fires.
TUESDAY:
Colder, but not enough- yet. Yesterday's High of 46°F at BWI was just a tad above the normal 43 (and enough for me to beat Tony for Day 1 this week). However it was much warmer than the 30s just north of the beltway. Is BWI running warm on the thermometer, or did the really cold air stall just north of the city? It seems like a microclimate trend this winter... but we will continue to watch the accuracy of the thermometer.
A quiet week is setting up. Although North Carolina had snow this morning, that system will allow a reinforcing shot of cold air to build in for the the next few days. Friday's clipper is still suspect in the Great Lakes to bring us a brief warm up and rain/snow showers...but it was the weekend event to follow that looks dead.
Below is the Canadian model run for Saturday Eve. On the left is last nights runs with nothing by cold air. On the right is from the night before highlighting a coastal storm. We did not buy it.
Another notch for Larry Cosgrove's mention that this model is useless this winter. We may just post it again for fun - if you can call it that.
Let's put the word out for DT. We want to get him back on the show this Sunday for his winter review. We'll keep you posted.
MONDAY:
Think about the last 6 weeks as winter's half-time show. Mick singing was a nice change of pace, but the novelty wore itself out. Let's hope our second half is better than the first - like last night's game.
The water vapor loop shows the southern Jet track allowing the Canadian pool of arctic air to return. The southern storm however will stay south and just skirt us with overnight/morning clouds. Northern Georgia to parts of North Carolina will have a better chance of snow than we have seen since before Christmas. While most of the week will be boring, at least near normal temperatures. So while some may complain that it is a waste of cold air, let's fast forward to the weekend. Our goal here is not to hype any chance of snow, but just find a sign of it down the line.
The models below are for 00Sunday = Saturday night made this past Sunday night.
The Canadian Model is has not performed well this season, and Larry Cosgrove told us on the show that trend would continue. Anyhow, this is last nights depiction for this coming Saturday. The full 4 panel display shows the cold pool locked across the east with a pronounced trough (upper left box), and the famed 50/50 low helping the North Atlantic Block! It also shows a coastal low that looks good, but suspicious.
The GFS Model for the same time frame also shows the cold air remaining in place, but more of a split energy flow. Quite a different story for us, but the southern system along the coast would be the one to watch two more days out. Again, just a reminder that the models are all over the place and not giving us much to rely this winter.
For the record, we track all of the available models, but these two are commonly used and show the big spread of solutions.
My personal favorite - ECMWF- has let me down one too many times this winter over hyping arctic air. It is going for it again next Sunday. See it here. We will keep track all week.
Villa Julie College,Stevenson Baltimore County, MD
This morning's visible satellite picture. Thanks to clear skies, the white showed the snowpack here in Maryland.
